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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."